Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.099711 0.111304 0.123312 0.136647 0.151014 0.165995 0.182767
2024-10-27 0.080481 0.097463 0.116072 0.137840 0.162469 0.189334 0.220716
2024-11-03 0.071895 0.093336 0.117963 0.148007 0.183325 0.223190 0.271240
2024-11-10 0.060422 0.083977 0.112287 0.148203 0.191919 0.242776 0.305762
2024-11-17 0.052498 0.077653 0.109142 0.150478 0.202302 0.264131 0.342420
2024-11-24 0.045366 0.071297 0.105047 0.150786 0.209699 0.281588 0.374412
2024-12-01 0.042571 0.070274 0.107469 0.159145 0.227096 0.311436 0.421934
2024-12-08 0.040203 0.069476 0.109919 0.167385 0.244353 0.341321 0.469980
2024-12-15 0.035812 0.065200 0.107130 0.168201 0.251645 0.358470 0.502120
2024-12-22 0.030799 0.059393 0.101638 0.164810 0.252946 0.367657 0.524040
2024-12-29 0.029014 0.058397 0.102934 0.170810 0.266925 0.393481 0.567666
2025-01-05 0.026984 0.056765 0.103100 0.175074 0.278502 0.416249 0.607607
2025-01-12 0.024552 0.054378 0.102200 0.178102 0.288981 0.438526 0.648405
2025-01-19 0.022152 0.051798 0.100839 0.180404 0.298571 0.459958 0.688751
2025-01-26 0.022090 0.053430 0.106276 0.193163 0.323490 0.502818 0.758564
2025-02-02 0.019651 0.050336 0.103769 0.193574 0.330472 0.521133 0.795657
2025-02-09 0.017910 0.048349 0.102911 0.196417 0.340986 0.544447 0.839826
2025-02-16 0.015964 0.045674 0.100642 0.196825 0.347777 0.562566 0.877081
2025-02-23 0.015677 0.046425 0.104371 0.206992 0.369429 0.602002 0.944208
2025-03-02 0.015376 0.047095 0.107953 0.216983 0.390974 0.641565 1.011973
2025-03-09 0.013895 0.044932 0.106201 0.217973 0.398612 0.661161 1.051982
2025-03-16 0.011942 0.041374 0.101577 0.213869 0.398156 0.668957 1.075459
2025-03-23 0.011488 0.041344 0.103607 0.221130 0.415577 0.702959 1.136254